Wednesday, November 3, 2010

The Girl Can't Help It

Sometimes this girl can't help it.  Can't help forsaking a plan and taking a leap into uncharted waters.  Merriam Webster defines a whim as a "capricious or eccentric and often sudden idea or turn of the mind". The Asset Class "Whims" is a both a recognition of this failing and an attempt to mitigate its impact.   My investments in a Whim are now limited to < 2% of the portfolio value.  In addition, there can only be one Whim at a time.  The current Whim is hedge against a drop in bond prices.  You know, the decline that's been predicted for more than a year.  Some Whims might work out, this one hasn't so far.  The point is that win or lose, Whims need to be restricted to give the main plan a chance to work.  Before I had a plan, all I had were whims.  Here's an account of a classic whim from years ago.

My niece's husband had just started his career as a broker.  Several family members, including me, opened accounts with his firm to help get him started.  One day he called and recommended the purchase of Metricom at about $10 a share.  Metricom was in the business of rolling out a wireless internet network based on IR technology.  The stock soon fell to about $6 and my niece's husband said it was time to pull the switch.  Stubbornly, I hung on as Metricom dropped to $2.  But hallelujah, Paul Allen, wealthy co-founder of Microsoft, announced he was making a sizable investment in Metricom.  Paul Allen, boy genius, was validating my investment in Metricom.   The stock rocketed to $90, but my back of the napkin calculation put the true value of Metricom at $250.  And as I was waiting to reach that $250 benchmark, competing technology vanquished poor Metricom and the stock crashed.  Long bankrupt, Metricom still appears on my monthly statement.  100 shares @ .001 per share = $.10.  Ten cents.  Buddy, can you spare a dime?   

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