First, Do No Harm

Too much time was spent this weekend trying to find the perfect investment.  I ran across Companhia Siderurgica Nacional and Gerdau S.A (SID), a Brazilian steel manufacturer moving into iron and cement.  SID is a hard asset play with a 7% dividend.  The railroads also seem attractive long-term and have been on a tear lately, perhaps courtesy of Warren Buffet.  Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) should do well hauling raw materials from "Cascadia". 

The fruitless anxiety of over-analysis extended to present holdings.  Our iShares S&P Developed ex-US Property Index Fund (WPS) holding should be sold from an administrative point of view.  The two international REITs we own is one too many.   In addition. the WPS chart is one of the weaker in the portfolio.  And speaking of weakness, our Singapore country ETF, EWS, is fading slightly as well.  We contemplated putting tight stops on both WPS and EWS.   Adding to concerns, the precious metals are obviously overbought.  Though I'm an unapologetic proponent of gold and silver, there must be a meaningful pullback at some point.  

And yet this morning, despite all these misgivings and trusting the medical community's most important precept "first, do no harm", we opted to let things stand as they are.  What I need to continuously etch in my feeble brain is that I am not a trader.  We should take positions based on a personal asset allocation model and an opinion on the effects of universal fiat currencies and deficit spending.  Selling is appropriate to avoid big losses, though we recognize some losses are inevitable.

The best find of the weekend was running into dshort.com and ycharts.  Every manner of chart and explanation are there.  Anyone who can speak knowledgeably about all the charts at dshort and ycharts likely has the equivalent of a MBA in finance.  Take a look.

A follow-up on BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT)-- it continues to roll higher despite the dearth of public news.  Where there's smoke there's fire?  And hats off to the US equity market continues which continues to defy the skeptics (me included) and inches ahead.