Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Invest Your Age In- - - -What?

You've likely heard the old rule of thumb that goes something like the percentage of your portfolio allocated to bonds should match your age.  The idea, of course, is to reduce risk as you get older.  Heaven forbid you're unlucky enough to live to 110 as you'd be leveraging bonds,  not exactly a conservative move.  But seriously, what to do if, for example, you don't think bonds are all that safe?  We've had a multi decade bond rally.  What if we're headed into a multi decade bond bear market, just in time for the boomer generation no less?

Randall W. Forsyth penned this excellent Barron's piece describing subtle changes popping up regarding the world's view of the dollar.  The reason the dollar is the world's reserve currency is because of our victory in World War II.  Though international monetary arrangements last for many years, even centuries, they don't last forever.  The prospect of changes in the dollar's status on the world financial stage and our growing national debt force me to question conventional wisdom concerning the relative safety of various investments.  Given these concerns,  how should the Fiat Fantasy asset allocation be made more conservative over time?

This Social Security website page estimates the average person my age will live another 19 years.  Let's be optimistic and round up to 20 years.  Next, we collapse our 14 asset allocation classes into the following 8 in order of decreasing safety.  Again, the order is my opinion based on my world view.

PRECIOUS METALS (15)
CASH (5)
BONDS (20)
YIELD GENERATORS (10)
---------------------------
HARD ASSETS (15)
REITS (10)
PROFESSIONAL ALLOCATORS (10)
EQUITIES (15)

Currently, 50% of the portfolio is above the line in the lower risk section and 50% is below the line in the higher risk section.  Every year on my birthday, starting this August, we will make a 2% adjustment.  After one year, above the line in the lower risk section will sum to 52% and below the line will sum to 48%.  After the 20 years Social Security believes I have left, the Fiat Fantasy portfolio would have 90% allocated to the lower risk classes and only 10% allocated to the higher risk classes.  Incredibly ingenious if I don't say so myself.

What could go wrong with this nutty scheme?  My "allotted" twenty years could instantly change into 20 minutes after a freak accident, a brilliant alchemist could win the 2012 Nobel prize for chemistry for discovering a way to transmute lead into gold, huge reserves of oil could be discovered under downtown Detroit-- well gee, just about everything could go wrong.  Or to quote R. Bandler, “Disappointment requires adequate planning.”  But hey, this is our plan and we're sticking to it.            
      

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